Variance Misread · also called sample-size blindness
how many tries before a losing streak actually means something
A variance misread is treating a losing streak that is statistically normal for your actual success rate as proof that you personally are failing, instead of checking whether the losses simply fall inside the range the math would predict anyway. Zero wins at a real two percent rate is not a verdict. It is the expected outcome.
A coin can land on heads ten times running. That’s not a rigged coin — that’s just what odds occasionally do.
What to do about it
Write down your real numbers — attempts and hits — and calculate what the math actually predicts before deciding the run means anything about you.
Books that work on this
Each is a 90-day programme. Start with the first — later books assume the work in the earlier ones.
Stack Tiny Wins$6.99
The Comeback Blueprint$6.99
Rock Bottom Floor$6.99
The Restart Protocol$6.99
Failure Math$6.99
No One Coming$6.99
Burn The Receipts$6.99
Rebuild In Silence$6.99Part of the Comeback series.
How people say it
Nobody looks this up by its clinical name. These are the ways it actually gets said.
- I keep losing and I think it means I’m bad at this
- is this just bad luck or am I actually failing
- zero wins in a row makes me think I should quit
- how many tries before a losing streak actually means something
- am I unlucky or genuinely not cut out for this
- my results keep confirming I’m not good enough
- is a bad streak actually proof of anything
Written by Brian Spiker, who has run Spiker Carpet and Tile Care since 2013 — the receipts. More terms in the encyclopedia.